Breaking Down The Bears Playoff Chances
Two straight wins and 3 out of the last 4 have Bear fans thinking playoffs again. What needs to happen?
For the purposes of this blog, I will only be addressing the possibility of a Wild Card entry to the postseason. A division title is technically possible but considering the Packers currently hold a 2.5 game lead over the Bears AND have the tiebreaker, it's very unlikely.
There are 2 teams the Bears need to concern themselves with: Vikings and Rams.
- Bears are 7-6
- Vikings are 8-4 (0-1 against the Bears)
- Rams are 7-5 (1-0 against the Bears)
- Bears - Green Bay, Kansas City, Minnesota
- Vikings - Detroit, LA Chargers, Green Bay, Chicago
- Rams - Seattle, Dallas, San Francisco, Arizona
Scenario 1: Bears go 3-0 in their remaining games. Final record of 10-6.
What needs to happen: Rams go 2-2 in their final 4 games to finish 9-7 AND Vikings go 2-2 in their final 4 games to finish 10-6 (Bears would hold the tiebreaker over the Vikings with a 2-0 head-to-head record.)
Scenario 2: Bears go 2-1 in their final game INCLUDING a win over Minnesota. Final record of 9-7.
What needs to happen: Rams go 1-3 in their final 4 games to finish 8-8 AND Vikings also go 1-3 in their final 4 games to finish 9-7 (Bears would still hold the head-to-head tiebreaker)
Scenario 3: Bears go 2-1 in their remaining games INCLUDING a loss to Minnesota. Final record of 9-7.
What needs to happen: Rams go 1-3 in their final 4 games to finish 8-8 AND Vikings go 1-3 to finish 9-7. Here's where it gets tricky. In this scenario, the Bears and Vikings would be 1-1 in the head-to-head matchup. The second tiebreaker is conference record. The Bears currently sit at 6-4, the Vikings are 6-3. The Bears would be 7-5 in this scenario (a win over GB, loss to MIN), the Vikings would also be 7-5 (win over CHI, loss to DET and GB.) Now we go to the third tiebreaker which is "Best won-lost percentage in common games, minimum of four."
We know the results of all these games in the above scenario the Bears would have a record of 7-4 in those games. The Vikings would be 5-6. Bears are in.
Common opponents: GB x 2, DET x 2, WAS, OAK, LAC, PHI, NYG, DAL, KC.
Bears: GB 1-1, DET 2-0, WAS - W, OAK - L, LAC - L, PHI - L, NYG - W, DAL - W, KC - W
Vikings: GB 0-2, DET 1-1, WAS - W, OAK - W, LAC - L, PHI - L, NYG - W, DAL - W, KC - L
Scenario 4: Bears go 1-2 INCLUDING a win over Minnesota? Final record of 8-8
What needs to happen: No idea. I stopped taking math classes after Differential Equations (awesome class BTW) so I'm not equipped to work out all the permutations. I'm guessing the Bears chances are VERY slim to none in this scenario.
You're saying there's a chance. It's an uphill battle. The Bears will be the underdog in all three remaining games barring injuries. The good news is they're playing the best they have all year.
The Bears are off this Sunday so Bear fans will become huge Seattle fans against the Rams and huge Detroit fans when they play the Vikings.